The important thing to understanding America’s political divides? It’s the tradition, silly.

(RNS) — Within the politico world, all eyes have been on Virginia this week. Regardless of obsessing over each sample within the tea leaves left from the expended marketing campaign methods and discernible within the exit polls, one putting discovering was nearly solely missed by the punditry class — how strongly views about Accomplice monuments divided Virginia voters.

Among the many 42% of Virginia voters who imagine that Accomplice monuments needs to be taken down, polls confirmed, almost 9 in 10 (87%) voted for the Democratic candidate, Terry McAuliffe. Among the many 51% of Virginia voters who imagine that Accomplice monuments needs to be left in place, greater than 8 in 10 (82%) voted for Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin.

Not surprisingly, attitudes about Accomplice monuments are extremely stratified by racial and non secular id. A 2018 PRRI national survey discovered that almost three-quarters of white People say Accomplice monuments needs to be both left in place with a plaque putting them in historic context (49%) or left as they’re (24%), whereas two-thirds of African People say they need to both be eliminated and relocated to non-public property (40%) or eliminated and destroyed (27%).

And as I confirmed in my ebook “White Too Long,” in nationwide information, 8 in 10 or extra of white evangelicals (85%), white mainline Protestant (85%) and white Catholics (80%) imagine that Accomplice monuments are extra an emblem of Southern delight than racism, a view shared by far fewer (54%) religiously unaffiliated whites and solely 24% of African American Protestants.

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To place this discovering into perspective, the divide over Accomplice monuments rivals the stratification produced by abortion, a problem that’s usually thought of the bellwether of partisan polarization. Amongst those that imagine abortion needs to be authorized in all or most instances, 73% voted for McAuliffe, whereas 87% of those that imagine abortion needs to be unlawful in all or most instances voted for Youngkin.

The facility of racial attitudes was additionally clear, and little mentioned, within the 2020 presidential election exit polls. Amongst voters who maintain an unfavorable view of the Black Lives Matter motion; imagine the U.S. felony justice system treats all folks pretty; or imagine that racism is a minor drawback or not an issue in any respect, greater than 8 in 10 voted for Donald Trump. On the nationwide degree, the divides produced by these attitudes are stronger than the divides over abortion. Amongst those that imagine abortion needs to be unlawful in all or most instances, 76% voted for Trump.

“2020 Vote for President, By Views on Racial Points” Graphic by PRRI

Earlier this week, in The New York Times “Morning Report” newsletter, David Leonhardt drew on PRRI’s just lately launched American Values Survey to discover the challenges Democrats have had reaching white working class (and I’d add white Christian) voters. In a bit headed “Tradition over Cash,” he wrote:

Democrats often lament that so many working-class People vote in opposition to their very own financial pursuits, by supporting Republicans who attempt to minimize well being care packages, faculty funding and extra. A 2004 ebook summarized the liberal frustration with the title, “What’s the Matter With Kansas?”

Leonhardt helpfully went on to notice that white working-class People “are hardly the one voters who prioritize points apart from their monetary state of affairs.” In Virginia, rich areas like Arlington — the place family incomes are generally six and even seven figures — McAuliffe received 77% of the vote. These voters knowingly solid their ballots for the celebration most definitely to boost their taxes.

I’ve at all times thought the “What’s the matter with Kansas?” thesis — or a minimum of the cocktail celebration model of the ebook’s thesis that was so seductive to so many progressives — was condescending and wrong-headed. The assertion that individuals vote “in opposition to their pursuits” is offensively paternalistic. It betrays an absence of mental curiosity that fails to think about that “pursuits” may be racial, spiritual and cultural and never simply materials.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin speaks throughout a rally in Glen Allen, Va., Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021. (AP Picture/Steve Helber)

As somebody who grew up as a Southern Baptist on the white working-class facet of city in Jackson, Mississippi, it was at all times implicitly clear that standing, the sense of 1’s “place” locally and within the nation, was not primarily about cash.

In recent times, public opinion surveys have been clearly telling us that our two political events are polarizing not over competing financial visions however over disparate visions of American id. At this time, the events are extra divided over the altering demographics of the nation, and the place of the previous white Anglo-Saxon Protestant ethnoreligious majority in it, than over financial coverage.

For instance, traditionally, when pollsters have requested about voter priorities, financial points usually topped the record for each Democrats and Republicans. However even with the pandemic financial crunch and present considerations about inflation, PRRI’s just-released American Values Survey discovered that neither Republicans nor Democrats rated “jobs and the economic system” extremely amongst an inventory of 10 doubtlessly important points (solely 37% of Republicans and 42% of Democrats mentioned it was a important challenge). However in the event you take a look at the problems partisans do say are important, id points come clearly into focus.

There are solely three points, for instance, {that a} majority of Republicans see as important points to them personally: immigration (64%), terrorism (60%) and crime (53%). White evangelical Protestants, who comprise the bottom of the GOP, largely share this angle, though solely two points reached majority as important points: terrorism (57%) and immigration (54%), with crime barely decrease at 46%.

“Most Essential Points amongst Republicans” Graphic by PRRI

Within the context of different findings within the survey, it’s clear that these priorities are fueled by a way of risk to a white Christian American majority. These important points translate into fears concerning the rising variety of Latino People, fears about Islam, and anti-Black attitudes tied to a “regulation and order” mentality the place African People are related to felony exercise and lawlessness in main cities. You received’t want to go looking far to seek out every of those interpretations made painfully express in former President Trump’s speeches and within the content material of the 2016 and 2020 Republican Nationwide Conventions.

And there’s a extra important piece of supporting proof that ethnoreligious id is turning into the first battle line within the tradition struggle: Solely about one-third (36%) of Republicans and fewer than half (48%) of white evangelical protestants mentioned abortion was a important challenge to them personally.

Against this, there are 5 points — none of that are shared with Republicans — that Democrats say are important to them personally. The coronavirus pandemic (75%) and well being care (63%) are highest on the record for Democrats, together with local weather change (70%). Practically 6 in 10 Democrats additionally spotlight racial (59%) and financial (57%) inequality as important points.

“Most Essential Points amongst Democrats” Graphic by PRRI

Even in my greatest try to learn this information with nonpartisan lenses, it’s tough to not discern two very totally different, incompatible visions for the nation: a Republican imaginative and prescient that’s more and more primarily based on defending a white Christian America in opposition to perceived exterior threats and a Democratic imaginative and prescient that’s turning into targeted on bridging the divides inside an more and more numerous nation. The PRRI workforce tried to seize this dichotomy within the title of the American Values Survey report this yr: “Competing Visions of America: An Evolving Identity or a Culture Under Attack?”

Regardless of the clear flip to id — significantly the standing of white Christian id — as a driving drive in our nation’s political divides, there stay outstanding voices encouraging Democrats to look previous this second of depending on racial justice and inequality to deal with economics.

James Carville — political strategist for Invoice Clinton identified for his well-known marketing campaign dictum, “It’s the economic system, silly” — gave a blunt rationalization to PBS’s Judy Woodruff for the Democratic losses in Virginia this week. Right here’s his evaluation of what went improper for Democrats:

Effectively, what went improper is that this silly wokeness. All proper? Don’t simply take a look at Virginia and New Jersey. Have a look at Lengthy Island, take a look at Buffalo, take a look at Minneapolis. Even take a look at Seattle, Washington. I imply, this defund the police lunacy, this take Abraham Lincoln’s title off of faculties, that — folks see that. And it’s simply — actually have a suppressive impact all throughout the nation to Democrats. A few of these folks have to go to a woke detox heart or one thing. They’re expressing language that individuals simply don’t use. And there’s a backlash and a frustration at that.

I agree with Carville that “defund the police” has been unhelpful — it’s neither a savvy political slogan nor an correct depiction of what most police reform advocates really wish to do. However pretending that the techniques of the Nineties — which noticed financial successes but in addition Democratic President Invoice Clinton backing against the law invoice that contributed to mass incarceration of younger Black males — are the options for right now is a mistake.

Such a technique misreads each the indicators of the instances and the implications of the information. And extra critically, it geese our ethical tasks.

Robert P. Jones. Picture courtesy of PRRI

If we actually wish to heal the soul of the nation and “obtain our nation,” as James Baldwin as soon as put it, we are able to’t proceed to paper-over racial injustice with financial coverage. “It’s the tradition, silly” — or much less euphemistically, “It’s the white supremacy, silly” — have to be the brand new mantra of political analysts right now.

(Robert P. Jones is the CEO and founding father of the Public Faith Analysis Institute and the writer of “White Too Long: The Legacy of White Supremacy in American Christianity.” This text was initially printed on Jones’ Substack #WhiteTooLong. Learn extra at robertpjones.substack.com. The views expressed on this commentary don’t essentially mirror these of Faith Information Service.)